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Odds you’ll save enough to retire? 50/50

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On paper, given the current state of the stock and bond markets, you’ve got less-than 50% chance that your money will last over the course of 30 years in retirement if you start out by withdrawing 4% per year from a 40% stocks, 60% bonds portfolio.

Or at least so says a new paper that examined thousands of Monte Carlo simulations, stock valuations and bond yields.