Retirement withdrawal rates and the market
Classic safe withdrawal rates studies, such as the works of William Bengen and theTrinity study, investigate sustainable withdrawal rates from rolling periods of the historical data, which give us an idea about what would have worked in the past. For a 30-year retirement period, we can learn about the historical sustainable withdrawal rates beginning up to 30 years ago. To make sure this is clear, we won't know what the sustainable withdrawal rate for someone retiring in 2000 will be until the end of 2029. The question remains as to whether those past outcomes provide sufficient insight about what can reasonably be expected to work for post-1980 retirees.
Pfau, Wade, "Retirement withdrawal rates and the market" (2012). Faculty Publications. 152.