The 6.0 Percent Rule
Barry H. Sacks
The 4 percent rule has come under scrutiny because of lower expectations about future security returns. Monte Carlo simulations using expected asset class risks and returns that reflect the current economy show that the first-year withdrawal can be 3.75 percent and increased for inflation each year. At 3.75 percent, portfolios with a 60 percent or higher equity exposure give a 90 percent chance of “spending success” over 30 years.
Wagner, Gerald C., "The 6.0 Percent Rule" (2013). In the News. 1878.